ارزیابی کمی میزان خطرپذیری شبکه تأمین انرژی الکتریکی شهرها در برابر مخاطرات و تهدیدات گوناگون

نوع مقاله : قدرت - حفاظت

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد نیشابور

2 دانشگاه حکیم سبزواری، سبزوار

چکیده

هدف از این مقاله، ارائه روشی جدید برای ارزیابی میزان خطرپذیری سیستم قدرت در برابر تهدیدات گوناگون است. این تهدیدات ممکن است در اثر بلایای طبیعی یا حملات تروریستی، شبکه تأمین انرژی الکتریکی را با مشکلات جدی مواجه سازد. در این راستا، عوامل اصلی تعیین‌کننده اهمیت یک منطقه شناسایی و در قالب 16 آیتم کمی سازی شده‌اند. در ادامه، با ترکیب این 16 شاخص فرعی، شاخص اصلی پیشنهادی برای ارزیابی خطر در هر منطقه محاسبه شده است. برای آنالیز میزان خطرپذیری کل سیستم، اثر عوامل شانزده‌گانه در احتمال خروج عناصر اصلی سیستم (شامل خط انتقال و باس) تعیین گردیده است. درنهایت، مدلی برای محاسبه احتمال و میزان خاموشی باس‌های مختلف در هر یک از حوادث محتمل، بر مبنای مفاهیم احتمال خطر و ارزش منطقه پیشنهاد شده است. روش پیشنهادی بر روی اطلاعات جغرافیایی یک مورد مطالعاتی شبیه‌سازی شده است. در نتایج به‌دست‌آمده، شهرهای دارای بیش‌ترین احتمال خطر، باس‌های بحرانی سیستم و نیز میزان خاموشی مورد انتظار معین شده‌اند. مدل پیشنهادی در این مقاله می‌تواند در شناسایی دقیق و علمی نقاط آسیب‌پذیر و بحرانی یک منطقه و همچنین ارزیابی سطح آسیب‌پذیری از دیدگاه پدافند غیرعامل مورد استفاده قرار گیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Risk Level Assessment of the Power Supply Network Against Various Threats

نویسندگان [English]

  • Seyed Jalal Hoseini 1
  • Mahdi Samadi 2
1 Islamic Azad University, Nishabur Branch
2 Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar
چکیده [English]

The aim of this paper is to provide a new approach for assessing the risk of a power system against natural events and the threats imposed by the terrorist attacks. In this regard, the main determinants of the importance of an area are quantified in the form of 16 introduced items. Subsequently, by combining these 16 sub-indicators, the main index for risk assessment is calculated for each region. In order to analyze the total risk of the system, the outage probability of each element (including the transmission line and the bus) is determined considering the sixteen proposed factors involved. Finally, a new model is proposed to calculate the unserved power of each event using the proposed risk index and region value. The proposed method has been simulated on the geographic information of a case study. The proposed model can help to identify the critical points, as well as the quantitative assessment of the vulnerability level.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Passive Defence
  • Vulnerability Level
  • Terrorist Attacks
  • Unserved Power
  • Power System
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